It also ignores the distinct - and thorny - possibility that the new
members will end up as net contributors to the budget. Quoted by Radio
Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Sandor Richter, a senior researcher with the
Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, concluded that the
first intake of applicants will end up underwriting at least $410
million of the EU's budget in the first year of membership alone. With
the GDP per capita of most candidates at one fifth the EU's, this would
be a perverse, socially unsettling and politically explosive outcome.
Aware of this, the European Commission denies any intention to actually
accept cash from the candidates. Their net contributions would remain
theoretical, it pledges implausibly. Yet, as long as a country such as
Poland is incapable of absorbing - disseminating and utilizing - more
than 28 percent of the aid it is currently entitled to - veteran EU
members rightly question its administrative ability to tackle much
larger provisions - c. $20 billion in the first three years after
accession.
The prolonged and irascible debate has taken its toll. In some
candidate countries, pro-EU sentiment is on the wane. Leszek Miller,
Poland's prime minister, told the PAP news agency that Poland should
contribute to the EU less than it receives in agricultural subsidies.
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