France's bid at European helmsmanship failed because both it and Russia
are biased in favor of the current regime in Iraq. French and Russian
firms have signed more than 1700 commercial contracts with Saddam's
murderous clique while their British and American competitors were
excluded by the policies of their governments.
When sanctions against Iraq are lifted - and providing Saddam or his
hand-picked successor are still in place - Russian energy behemoths are
poised to explore and extract billions of barrels of oil worth dozens
of billions of dollars. Iraq owes Russia $9 billion which Russia wants
repaid.
But the United States would be mistaken to indulge in Schadenfreude or
to gleefully assume that it has finally succeeded in isolating the
insolent French and the somnolent Germans. Public opinion - even where
it carries little weight, like in Britain, or in the Balkans - cannot
be ignored forever.
Furthermore, all the countries of Europe share real concerns about the
stability of the Middle East. A divided Iraq stands to unsettle
neighbours near and far. Turkey has a large Kurdish minority as does
Iran. Conservative regimes in the Gulf fear Iraq's newfound and
American-administered democracy. In the wake of an American attack on
Iraq, Islamic fundamentalism and militancy will surely surge and lead
to a wave of terror.
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